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  Receive in the former Soviet space are very long life and even if they look outside of the former Soviet space autocratic regime and the last on average about 16 years and the way the change has been deterred not come about is there is one of L dies which has been you know what we've seen and Azerbaijan and Pakistan and some other places in Kazakhstan nazarbayev has stepped down but that's been a very difficult

for a long. Of time that Russia will be in this nasty equilibrium of slow growth a sort of popular leader but with no alternatives to a rally version of Russia that is better able to satisfy the needs of the majority of its citizens about the changes in the global energy Market this makes it more difficult for an autocratic leader in that satisfies my inner circle with tremendous strength beyond their belief but also was able to satisfy the average Russian because living standards doubled in the first decade in office fill in the last 4 years of corn has really started to have to make hard choices about you know where does the next Ruble go does it go to the Inner Circle of broader based on economic growth in one source of political change in elections when honest majority do we call them where you know most people believe that that's going to be a much much tougher challenge for Putin to claim that he's able to win and if current trends continue selections are another potential Source where readers can make mistakes where they as we see him get too much in the election. People on the street in a country where there is very little protest you know for for two decades to change comes from without I think there's a lot of wishful thinking about p*** and foreign countries ability to to manipulate domestic politics and it's just really hard and just got to go to Dad's the way that political change will come about Timothy fry strongman the limits of power in Putin's Russia Russia and other similar countries the book seems to be making an argument that is it is not really not about other terms that we might use to describe a person is commonly used in literature games in which major policy in Personnel decisions are made by a single individual decision of when it's time to step down right so if I'm going to Mexico every six years under the PRI the party move on to somebody else until recently when they were able to manage and Norm you know two terms for the the general secretary when it's time to go to hide a lot of the bad news so we can't always assume that the leaders who are politically unchallenged best information about what's going on in country two wheeler any questions or comments from the panelists that you wanted to spend more time clearly they're in the Russian case and there is a whole literature in social science about the foreign policies of autocracy and cost National I just taking about foreign policy but I didn't say I want to avoid trying to you know fetish fetish size but you know what is unique about the Russia and it'll putting too much Explorer power on things that are not fake nails Timothy fry weak the strong man Colonial Country Lane give yourself a little more credit for stir fry going after the simplify who need a certain view of Russia or who are wedded to it you actually have the sophisticated even-handed to dishes for Russia is normal country what it has specificities to your rhetorical package doesn't do full Justice to your achievements in my view but I've already stated that but let's not imagine that you ignore the Russian history Russian Traditions Russian institutions such as personality and it's right so what type beat beat ourselves up as if we're in the Banya and we're trying to get the most out of the steam here International Affairs at Princeton University

that's right because that's where the political role of Russia and I'm thinking about the future I like electric Empire I have a question if I could for Professor kopkin that their relationship is discussion I have you you know if you're in your transition to democracy would suggest that it's never going to happen have you at the term that's come up in your work recently is packed dependents kind of a depressing term have you have you given up hope this is just a question a professor has already answered and I would prefer to let his answer staying here and I would want the audience to focus on his book The Russia has had State collapse and autocracy comes back inside Mass participatory Revolution more than once and I'll talk when she comes back so we have a problem that needs to be explained we don't necessarily have a cage that we live in but it's been a long time since the kingdom of no very long time but anyway Professor fry back to you I think about historical legacies and much harder to make persuasive than people commonly realize you know so you know before they show that in districts within Russia where the purges were especially severe voting patterns and contemporary Russia are different regions where the previous were less severe turn out as lower support for the regime is higher now that's really interesting has always had centralized power in Pune centralizing power so therefore that's an explanation now that's a description and so why it's happening now why the decentralisation is happening is happening rather than decentralisation and in the Russia. So I think they're just real a lot of interesting work being done right now that looks at how the past affects the present and it's a really difficult thing to do without just hand waving about precisely what's the mechanism by which we had these purchase back here in his village 1938 voting patterns in the early 1990s and there's different well you know what is the mechanism that you do make that happen rather than just being in our two discrete events and it's really smart people doing interesting work on that and I just try to highlight a little bit of little bit of that in the book.

Quoted by Amenity.

From Nicole Smith

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